Hydro

Hydro is not predicted here. The forward bars simply carry the most recent observed daily generation level forward, unchanged. They show where output currently sits, not where it is heading.

This page used to show a statistical forecast built from reservoir and river-flow state, precipitation around the main catchments, and demand. When it was measured against the plain carry-forward on the same days, the carry-forward was as accurate or better in most zones — so the simpler and more transparent option is what runs now.

The reason a model struggles here is that reservoir hydro is largely price-driven: operators store water when prices are low and release it when they are high. That decision is the biggest driver of day-to-day output, and it does not follow from weather or water levels alone. Read the forward bars as the current production level only, and expect real output to move away from them.